Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political
order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential
recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less
likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive
correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active
insurgencies. We test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq and the
Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly-available
measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied
forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost
theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between
unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p<.05%).
There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the
rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. We identify several
potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision
to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on the one
hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account
for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in
these three conflicts.
%0 Report
%1 Beretal09
%A Berman, Eli
%A Callen, Michael
%A Felter, Joseph H.
%A Shapiro, Jacob N.
%B Working Paper Series
%D 2009
%K conflict imported
%N 15547
%T Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the
Philippines
%U http://www.nber.org/papers/w15547
%X Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political
order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential
recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less
likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive
correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active
insurgencies. We test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq and the
Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly-available
measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied
forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost
theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between
unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p<.05%).
There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the
rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. We identify several
potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision
to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on the one
hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account
for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in
these three conflicts.
@techreport{Beretal09,
abstract = {Most aid spending by governments seeking to rebuild social and political
order is based on an opportunity-cost theory of distracting potential
recruits. The logic is that gainfully employed young men are less
likely to participate in political violence, implying a positive
correlation between unemployment and violence in locations with active
insurgencies. We test that prediction in Afghanistan, Iraq and the
Philippines, using survey data on unemployment and two newly-available
measures of insurgency: (1) attacks against government and allied
forces; and (2) violence that kills civilians. Contrary to the opportunity-cost
theory, the data emphatically reject a positive correlation between
unemployment and attacks against government and allied forces (p<.05%).
There is no significant relationship between unemployment and the
rate of insurgent attacks that kill civilians. We identify several
potential explanations, introducing the notion of insurgent precision
to adjudicate between the possibilities that predation on the one
hand, and security measures and information costs on the other, account
for the negative correlation between unemployment and violence in
these three conflicts.},
added-at = {2013-01-08T19:41:52.000+0100},
author = {Berman, Eli and Callen, Michael and Felter, Joseph H. and Shapiro, Jacob N.},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2cce813b511302ce61d1b5f7455306c1e/tciarli},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
interhash = {7b95364b2a4bda494f06d05ccf317ee9},
intrahash = {cce813b511302ce61d1b5f7455306c1e},
keywords = {conflict imported},
month = {November},
number = 15547,
owner = {Tum},
series = {Working Paper Series},
timestamp = {2013-01-08T19:41:57.000+0100},
title = {Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Iraq and the
Philippines},
type = {Working Paper},
url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w15547},
year = 2009
}