Article,
Simple procedure for generating sequences of daily radiation values using a library of Markov transition matrices
Solar Energy, 40 (3): 269--279 (1998)
Abstract
This article describes how sequences of daily global radiation can
be generated for any location, using as input only the average monthly
radiation for that location (or the average monthly number of sunshine
hours?insolation). The generated sequences are statistically indistinguishable
from real ones and the method derived here is, therefore, a way of
obtaining radiation sequences for locations were such sequences have
not been measured, and for which many types of long-term performance
calculations could not be made until now. The method is based on
the observation that (I) there is a significant correlation only
between radiation values for consecutive days and (2) that the probability
of occurrence of radiation values is the same for months with the
same K, (clearness index). The method employs a library of Markov
transition matrices, each corresponding to a specific interval in
K,. This article explains the derivation of the matrices, how they
are to be used to generate radiation sequences. and compares synthetized
and measured sequences
