%0 Journal Article %1 Hakulinen1994 %A Hakulinen, T %A Dyba, T %D 1994 %J Statistics in medicine %K Adult AgeFactors ConfidenceIntervals Female Forecasting Humans Incidence LinearModels Male MiddleAged Neoplasms Neoplasms:epidemiology Nonparametric PoissonDistribution Statistics Sweden Sweden:epidemiology %N 15 %P 1513-23 %T Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations. %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7973230 %V 13 %X Disease incidence predictions are useful for a number of administrative and scientific purposes. The simplest ones are made using trend extrapolation, on either an arithmetic or a logarithmic scale. This paper shows how approximate confidence prediction intervals can be calculated for such predictions, both for the total number of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates, by assuming Poisson distribution of the age and period specific numbers of incident cases. Generalizations for prediction models, for example, using power families and extra-Poisson variation, are also presented. Cancer incidence predictions for the Stockholm-Gotland Oncological Region in Sweden are used as an example.

@article{Hakulinen1994, abstract = {Disease incidence predictions are useful for a number of administrative and scientific purposes. The simplest ones are made using trend extrapolation, on either an arithmetic or a logarithmic scale. This paper shows how approximate confidence prediction intervals can be calculated for such predictions, both for the total number of cases and for the age-adjusted incidence rates, by assuming Poisson distribution of the age and period specific numbers of incident cases. Generalizations for prediction models, for example, using power families and extra-Poisson variation, are also presented. Cancer incidence predictions for the Stockholm-Gotland Oncological Region in Sweden are used as an example.}, added-at = {2023-02-03T11:44:35.000+0100}, author = {Hakulinen, T and Dyba, T}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/200452322fb57e5ca1979e3b5a81ef15a/jepcastel}, interhash = {fb86d4d3dab29a8648c5b5cc1d4d44fb}, intrahash = {00452322fb57e5ca1979e3b5a81ef15a}, issn = {0277-6715}, journal = {Statistics in medicine}, keywords = {Adult AgeFactors ConfidenceIntervals Female Forecasting Humans Incidence LinearModels Male MiddleAged Neoplasms Neoplasms:epidemiology Nonparametric PoissonDistribution Statistics Sweden Sweden:epidemiology}, month = {8}, note = 2440, number = 15, pages = {1513-23}, pmid = {7973230}, timestamp = {2023-02-03T11:44:35.000+0100}, title = {Precision of incidence predictions based on Poisson distributed observations.}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7973230}, volume = 13, year = 1994 }