%0 Journal Article %1 Appendini2019469 %A Appendini, C.M. %A Meza-Padilla, R. %A Abud-Russell, S. %A Proust, S. %A Barrios, R.E. %A Secaira-Fajardo, F. %D 2019 %I Springer %J Climatic Change %K 2019 Caribbean ClimateChange NaturalHazards PublicPolicy RiskManagement TropicalCyclones from:erick007 %N 3-4 %P 469-482 %R 10.1007/s10584-019-02569-5 %T Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula %U https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85074561544&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-019-02569-5&partnerID=40&md5=35015dbe975691fe7bf6e85ec811aaa7 %V 157 %X Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.

@article{Appendini2019469, abbrev_source_title = {Clim. Change}, abstract = {Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects. © 2019, Springer Nature B.V.}, added-at = {2021-05-28T02:24:17.000+0200}, affiliation = {Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Puerto de abrigo s/n, Sisal, Yucatán 97356, Mexico; Laboratorio Nacional de Resiliencia Costera, Laboratorios Nacionales CONACYT, Mexico City, Mexico; Programa de Maestría y Doctorado en Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, 04510, Mexico; Programa de Pequeñas Donaciones, Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, Mérida, Yucatán 97000, Mexico; Department of Anthropology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, United States; The Nature Conservancy, Mérida, Yucatán 97070, Mexico}, author = {Appendini, C.M. and Meza-Padilla, R. and Abud-Russell, S. and Proust, S. and Barrios, R.E. and Secaira-Fajardo, F.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2c70b3e4cd27a1ae34489a2ec7ebdd9e2/publ_del_lipc}, coden = {CLCHD}, correspondence_address1 = {Appendini, C.M.; Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Puerto de abrigo s/n, Mexico; email: cappendinia@iingen.unam.mx}, document_type = {Article}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-019-02569-5}, funding_details = {OLE-1}, funding_text 1 = {UNAM-DGAPA PAPIIT Project IA100418 and the Centro Mexicano de Innovación en Energía del Océano, CEMIE-Océano (OLE-1) provided funding for this study.}, interhash = {13794bb3a2bf6a2eeefd3a55f8fe7d0c}, intrahash = {c70b3e4cd27a1ae34489a2ec7ebdd9e2}, issn = {01650009}, journal = {Climatic Change}, keywords = {2019 Caribbean ClimateChange NaturalHazards PublicPolicy RiskManagement TropicalCyclones from:erick007}, language = {English}, number = {3-4}, pages = {469-482}, publisher = {Springer}, source = {Scopus}, timestamp = {2021-06-23T06:14:29.000+0200}, title = {Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula}, url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85074561544&doi=10.1007%2fs10584-019-02569-5&partnerID=40&md5=35015dbe975691fe7bf6e85ec811aaa7}, volume = 157, year = 2019 }