Аннотация
The Mw 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on 27
February 2010 offshore the Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected.
A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic
loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake. Here
we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data to derive a robust model
for the coseismic slip distribution and induced coseismic stress
changes. We compare these with past earthquakes and the preseismic
locking distribution, to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled
the seismic gap. We find that the main slip patch is located to the
north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the Mw 8.0 earthquake
that occurred in 1928, with a secondary concentration of slip to
the south. The seismic gap was only partially filled and a zone of
high preseismic locking remains unbroken, inconsistent with the assumption
that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with preseismic
locking. Moreover, we conclude that increased stress on the unbroken
patch may in turn have increased the probability of another major
to great earthquake there in the near future.
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