Zusammenfassung
We propose a new model to predict the spatial and temporal
behavior of wildfires. Fire spread and intensity were simu-
lated using a cellular automaton model. Monte Carlo tech-
niques were used to provide fire risk probabilities for areas
where fuel loadings and topography are known. The model
assumes predetermined or measurable environmental varia-
bles such as wind direction and magnitude, relative humid-
ity, fuel moisture content, and air temperature.
Implementation of the model allows the linking of fire moni-
toring using remotely sensed data, potentially in real time, to
rapid simulations of predicted fire behavior. Calibration of
the model is based on thermal infrared remotely sensed im-
agery of a test burn during 1986 in the San Dimas experi-
mental forest. The model and its various implementations
show distinct promise for real-time fire management and fire
risk planning.
Nutzer