%0 Journal Article %1 springerlink:10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6 %A Seo, Lynn %A Kim, Tae-Woong %A Choi, Minha %A Kwon, Hyun-Han %C Berlin / Heidelberg %D 2011 %I Springer %J Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment %K Extremes Meteorology Nonstationarity Nonstationarity:trend precipitation %P 1-9 %R 10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6 %T Constructing rainfall depth-frequency curves considering a linear trend in rainfall observations %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6 %X Comprehensive flood prevention plans are established in large basins to cope with recent abnormal floods in South Korea. In order to make economically effective plans, appropriate design rainfalls are critically determined from the rainfall depth-frequency curves which take the occurrence of abnormal floods into consideration. Conventional approaches to construct the rainfall depth-frequency curves are based on the stationarity assumption. However, this assumption has a critical weak aspect in that it cannot reflect non-stationarities in rainfall observations. As an alternative, this study suggests the non-stationary Gumbel model (NSGM) which incorporates a linear trend of rainfall observations into rainfall frequency analysis to construct the rainfall depth-frequency curves. A comparison of various schemes employed in the model found that the proposed NSGM permits the estimation of the distribution parameters even when shifted in the future by using linear relationships between rainfall statistics and distribution parameters, and produces more acceptable estimates of design rainfalls in the future than the conventional model. The NSGM was applied at several stations in South Korea and then expected the design rainfalls to increase by up to 15–30% in 2050.

@article{springerlink:10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6, abstract = {Comprehensive flood prevention plans are established in large basins to cope with recent abnormal floods in South Korea. In order to make economically effective plans, appropriate design rainfalls are critically determined from the rainfall depth-frequency curves which take the occurrence of abnormal floods into consideration. Conventional approaches to construct the rainfall depth-frequency curves are based on the stationarity assumption. However, this assumption has a critical weak aspect in that it cannot reflect non-stationarities in rainfall observations. As an alternative, this study suggests the non-stationary Gumbel model (NSGM) which incorporates a linear trend of rainfall observations into rainfall frequency analysis to construct the rainfall depth-frequency curves. A comparison of various schemes employed in the model found that the proposed NSGM permits the estimation of the distribution parameters even when shifted in the future by using linear relationships between rainfall statistics and distribution parameters, and produces more acceptable estimates of design rainfalls in the future than the conventional model. The NSGM was applied at several stations in South Korea and then expected the design rainfalls to increase by up to 15–30% in 2050.}, added-at = {2012-01-10T16:30:29.000+0100}, address = {Berlin / Heidelberg}, affiliation = {Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, 133-791 Korea}, author = {Seo, Lynn and Kim, Tae-Woong and Choi, Minha and Kwon, Hyun-Han}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2e74b035ce7a2ca1a7d95824ec33c2a3c/marsianus}, description = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Online First™ - SpringerLink}, doi = {10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6}, interhash = {4f481b561e33be080e652125a17f8a85}, intrahash = {e74b035ce7a2ca1a7d95824ec33c2a3c}, issn = {1436-3240}, journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}, keyword = {Earth and Environmental Science}, keywords = {Extremes Meteorology Nonstationarity Nonstationarity:trend precipitation}, pages = {1-9}, publisher = {Springer}, timestamp = {2013-01-09T14:04:06.000+0100}, title = {Constructing rainfall depth-frequency curves considering a linear trend in rainfall observations}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-011-0549-6}, year = 2011 }