Аннотация
Infectious disease emergence is under the simultaneous influence
of both genetic and ecological factors. Yet, we lack a general
framework for linking ecological dynamics of infectious disease
with underlying molecular and evolutionary change. As a model,
we illustrate the linkage between ecological and evolutionary
dynamics in rabies virus during its epidemic expansion into eastern
and southern Ontario. We characterized the phylogeographic re-
lationships among 83 isolates of fox rabies virus variant using
nucleotide sequences from the glycoprotein-encoding glycopro-
tein gene. The fox rabies virus variant descended as an irregular
wave with two arms invading from northern Ontario into southern
Ontario over the 1980s and 1990s. Correlations between genetic
and geographic distance suggest an isolation by distance popula-
tion structure for the virus. The divergence among viral lineages
since the most recent common ancestor correlates with position
along the advancing wave front with more divergent lineages near
the origin of the epidemic. Based on divergence from the most
recent common ancestor, the regional population can be parti-
tioned into two subpopulations, each corresponding to an arm of
the advancing wave. Subpopulation A (southern Ontario) showed
reduced isolation by distance relative to subpopulation B (eastern
Ontario). The temporal dynamics of subpopulation A suggests that
the subregional viral population may have undergone several
smaller waves that reduced isolation by distance. The use of
integrated approaches, such as the geographical analysis of se-
quence variants, coupled with information on spatial dynamics will
become indispensable aids in understanding patterns of disease
emergence.
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