%0 Journal Article %1 Ozgul2010a %A Ozgul, Arpat %A Childs, Dylan Z %A Oli, Madan K %A Armitage, Kenneth B %A Blumstein, Daniel T %A Olson, Lucretia E %A Tuljapurkar, Shripad %A Coulson, Tim %D 2010 %I Nature Publishing Group %J Nature %K theoretical-ecology %N 7305 %P 482--5 %R 10.1038/nature09210 %T Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change. %U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20651690 %V 466 %X Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.

@article{Ozgul2010a, abstract = {Environmental change has altered the phenology, morphological traits and population dynamics of many species. However, the links underlying these joint responses remain largely unknown owing to a paucity of long-term data and the lack of an appropriate analytical framework. Here we investigate the link between phenotypic and demographic responses to environmental change using a new methodology and a long-term (1976-2008) data set from a hibernating mammal (the yellow-bellied marmot) inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat. We demonstrate how earlier emergence from hibernation and earlier weaning of young has led to a longer growing season and larger body masses before hibernation. The resulting shift in both the phenotype and the relationship between phenotype and fitness components led to a decline in adult mortality, which in turn triggered an abrupt increase in population size in recent years. Direct and trait-mediated effects of environmental change made comparable contributions to the observed marked increase in population growth. Our results help explain how a shift in phenology can cause simultaneous phenotypic and demographic changes, and highlight the need for a theory integrating ecological and evolutionary dynamics in stochastic environments.}, added-at = {2013-04-11T15:39:33.000+0200}, author = {Ozgul, Arpat and Childs, Dylan Z and Oli, Madan K and Armitage, Kenneth B and Blumstein, Daniel T and Olson, Lucretia E and Tuljapurkar, Shripad and Coulson, Tim}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/275b0a455c3fd720cb53d45ee55b44513/carl-boettiger}, doi = {10.1038/nature09210}, file = {:home/cboettig/Documents/Mendeley/Nature/2010/Ozgul et al. - 2010 - Nature.pdf:pdf}, interhash = {f7f81752700fa82984c7146098b1f0c0}, intrahash = {75b0a455c3fd720cb53d45ee55b44513}, issn = {1476-4687}, journal = {Nature}, keywords = {theoretical-ecology}, month = jul, number = 7305, pages = {482--5}, pmid = {20651690}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, timestamp = {2013-04-11T15:42:55.000+0200}, title = {{Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change.}}, url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20651690}, volume = 466, year = 2010 }