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Forecasting High-Frequency Financial Time Series with Evolutionary Neural Trees: The Case of Heng-Sheng Stock Index

, , and . Proceedings of the International Conference on Artificial Intelligence, IC-AI '99, 2, page 437--443. Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, CSREA Press, (28 June-1 July 1999)

Abstract

In this paper, the evolutionary neural trees (ENT) are applied to forecasing the highfrequency stock returns of Heng-Sheng stock index on December, 1998. To understand what may consistute an effective implementation, six experiments are conducted. These experiments are different in data-preprocessing procedures, sample sizes, search intensity and complexity regularization. Our results shows that ENT can perform more efficiently if we can associate ENT with a linear filter so that it can concentrate on searching in the space of nonlinear signals. Also, as well demonstarted in this study, the infrequent bursts (outliers) appearing in the high-frequency data can be very disturbing for the normal operation of ENT.

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