%0 Journal Article %1 Barro:AER:2009 %A Barro, Robert J. %D 2009 %I American Economic Association %J The American Economic Review %K disaster equity-premium welfare %N 1 %P 243-264 %T Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs %U http://www.jstor.org/stable/29730183 %V 99 %X A representative-consumer model with Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and i.i.d. shocks, including rare disasters, accords with observed equity premia and risk-free rates if the coefficient of relative risk aversion equals 3-4. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exceeds one, an increase in uncertainty lowers the price-dividend ratio for equity, and a rise in the expected growth rate raises this ratio. Calibrations indicate that society would willingly reduce GDP by around 20 percent each year to eliminate rare disasters. The welfare cost from usual economic fluctuations is much smaller, though still important, corresponding to lowering GDP by about 1.5 percent each year.

@article{Barro:AER:2009, abstract = {A representative-consumer model with Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and i.i.d. shocks, including rare disasters, accords with observed equity premia and risk-free rates if the coefficient of relative risk aversion equals 3-4. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution exceeds one, an increase in uncertainty lowers the price-dividend ratio for equity, and a rise in the expected growth rate raises this ratio. Calibrations indicate that society would willingly reduce GDP by around 20 percent each year to eliminate rare disasters. The welfare cost from usual economic fluctuations is much smaller, though still important, corresponding to lowering GDP by about 1.5 percent each year.}, added-at = {2014-10-23T00:07:57.000+0200}, author = {Barro, Robert J.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/21e47224f2142ba9cd5b589f192b1c218/fcqms}, copyright = {Copyright © 2009 American Economic Association}, description = {JSTOR: The American Economic Review, Vol. 99, No. 1 (Mar., 2009), pp. 243-264}, interhash = {f1a52c51da18e502aca690882bddfb08}, intrahash = {1e47224f2142ba9cd5b589f192b1c218}, issn = {00028282}, journal = {The American Economic Review}, jstor_articletype = {research-article}, jstor_formatteddate = {Mar., 2009}, keywords = {disaster equity-premium welfare}, language = {English}, number = 1, pages = {243-264}, publisher = {American Economic Association}, timestamp = {2014-10-23T00:07:57.000+0200}, title = {Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs}, url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/29730183}, volume = 99, year = 2009 }