Twenty years of “hot hand” research: Review and critique
Psychology of Sport and Exercise, 7 (6):
525--553 (2006)Judgement and Decision Making in Sport and Exercise.DOI: 10.1016/j.psychsport.2006.03.001
Abstract
Objectives This article systematically reviews the state of the art of the “hot hand” research in sports. The belief that successive attempts of an individual player are positively related, as well as the behavior influenced by such a belief, will be investigated. Method The analysis of experiments, simulations, and archival data from actual sport competitions are structured in a way that evidence for or against the existence of the hot hand is presented. In addition, key issues that have been raised over this debate will be highlighted, including their merits and pitfalls. Results The empirical evidence for the existence of the hot hand is considerably limited. Methodological advancements as well as some experimental results indicate a shift in the debate from the adaptiveness of a potentially faulty belief to an adaptive behavior based partly on the hot hand belief. Conclusions The potential implications of this review for cognitive theories, empirical studies, and sport practice may provide a significant leverage point for future research and application.