Characterization and Simulation of Hourly Exposure Series of Global
Radiation
Solar Energy, (1997)Аннотация
A statistical model which captures the main features of hourly exposure
series of global radiation is proposed. This model is used to obtain
a procedure to generate radiation series without imposing, a priori,
any restriction on the form of the probability distribution function
of the series. The statistical model was taken from the stationary
stochastic processes theory. Data were obtained from ten different
Spanish locations. As monthly hourly exposure series of global radiation
are not stationary, they are modified in order to remove the observed
trends. A multiplicative autoregressive moving average model with
regular and seasonal components was used. It is statistically accepted
that this is the true model which generates most of the analyzed
sequences. However, the underlying parameters of the model vary from
one location to another and from one month to another. Therefore,
it is necessary to examine further the relationship between the parameters
of the model and the available data from most locations.