Modelling complex human systems: A fisheries example
European Journal of Operational Research, 30 (2):
147--167 (June 1987)Abstract
The basis of current models used in Fishery Management is briefly examined, and various shortcomings are discussed. Alternative, dynamic models are described which are based on the data available for the Nova Scotia Groundfish Fisheries. It is shown that human responses can amplify relatively small annual environmental fluctuations, leading to large, quasi- cyclic changes in catch and profit. In a detailed spatial model it is shown that stochastic behaviour on the part of some fishermen is necessary for the survival of the fishery, and that the efficiency and size of the industry depends very much on the information flows concerning catch. A very general discussion is given which shows how these ideas are important in our understanding of innovation and discovery in general terms.