The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.
%0 Journal Article
%1 takaya2021skilful
%A Takaya, Yuhei
%A Kosaka, Yu
%A Watanabe, Masahiro
%A Maeda, Shuhei
%D 2021
%I Springer Science and Business Media LLC
%J Nature Communications
%K China MyYangtzeWork decadal dynamics eastasianmonsoon monsoon seasonal skill
%N 1
%R 10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6
%T Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead
%U https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6
%V 12
%X The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.
@article{takaya2021skilful,
abstract = {The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.},
added-at = {2021-04-07T17:02:42.000+0200},
author = {Takaya, Yuhei and Kosaka, Yu and Watanabe, Masahiro and Maeda, Shuhei},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/256857a8af05b64fe1c6c901921ea60d3/pbett},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6},
interhash = {e2fd4f90e5b54d85a38ba56765acab1c},
intrahash = {56857a8af05b64fe1c6c901921ea60d3},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {China MyYangtzeWork decadal dynamics eastasianmonsoon monsoon seasonal skill},
month = apr,
number = 1,
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}},
timestamp = {2021-04-07T17:02:42.000+0200},
title = {Skilful predictions of the Asian summer monsoon one year ahead},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22299-6},
volume = 12,
year = 2021
}