Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill beyond Two Weeks in Boreal Winter
Geophysical Research Letters, (2020)DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090451
Abstract
The week 3‐6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state‐of‐the‐art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20‐member ensemble of 45‐day reforecasts over 1999‐2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to six weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced week 3‐6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed.