%0 Journal Article %1 bracegirdle2018cmip5 %A Bracegirdle, Thomas J. %A Lu, Hua %A Eade, Rosie %A Woollings, Tim %D 2018 %I American Geophysical Union (AGU) %J Geophysical Research Letters %K MySeclifirmWTwork MyUKCPStorylinesWork climatechange colleagues jet nao %N 14 %P 7204--7212 %R 10.1029/2018gl078965 %T Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low-Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability? %U https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078965 %V 45 %X The magnitude of observed multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multidecadal winter NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Our results show that the observed peak in multidecadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model‐simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low‐frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multidecadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid‐nineteenth century may be specific to this period.

@article{bracegirdle2018cmip5, abstract = {The magnitude of observed multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter is at the upper end of the range simulated by climate models and a clear explanation for this remains elusive. Recent research shows that observed multidecadal winter NAO variability is more strongly associated with North Atlantic (NA) jet strength than latitude, thus motivating a comprehensive comparison of NA jet and NAO variability across the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Our results show that the observed peak in multidecadal jet strength variability is even more unusual than NAO variability when compared to the model‐simulated range across 133 historical CMIP5 simulations. Some CMIP5 models appear capable of reproducing the observed low‐frequency peak in jet strength, but there are too few simulations of each model to clearly identify which. It is also found that an observed strong multidecadal correlation between jet strength and NAO since the mid‐nineteenth century may be specific to this period.}, added-at = {2020-04-03T13:17:10.000+0200}, author = {Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Lu, Hua and Eade, Rosie and Woollings, Tim}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/29757904b92b8762e6daf176f9b660bb2/pbett}, description = {it is the strength of the westerlies, rather than latitude, that underlies models' difficulty in reproducing low‐frequency NAO variability. This matters: a more positive NAO associated mainly with stronger westerlies has different impacts compared to one associated mainly with more poleward westerlies.}, doi = {10.1029/2018gl078965}, interhash = {04d360b22efc576aa0060c77b62a0a13}, intrahash = {9757904b92b8762e6daf176f9b660bb2}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {MySeclifirmWTwork MyUKCPStorylinesWork climatechange colleagues jet nao}, month = jul, number = 14, pages = {7204--7212}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union ({AGU})}, timestamp = {2020-04-03T13:17:10.000+0200}, title = {Do CMIP5 Models Reproduce Observed Low-Frequency North Atlantic Jet Variability?}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078965}, volume = 45, year = 2018 }