%0 Journal Article %1 DevezasCorredine:2002 %A Devezas, Tessaleno C. %A Corredine, James T. %D 2002 %J Technological Forecasting & Social Change %K change complexity development impact technology theory world-system %N 4 %P 317--357 %T The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems: An Informational Interpretation %V 69 %X In this paper, a cybernetic framework is proposed that may help in understanding the specifics of the timely unfolding of recurrent social phenomena, as well as provide a basis for their application as useful forecasting tools for futures studies. The long-wave behavior in technoeconomic development was chosen to apply this theoretical framework. The time evolution of a technoeconomic system is described discretely as a logistically growing number of ``interactors'' adopting an emerging set of basic social and technological innovations. By using the logistic function as the probabilistic distribution of individuals exchanging and processing information in a finite niche of available information, it is possible to demonstrate that the rate of information entropy change exhibits a ``wavy'' aspect evidenced by a four-phased behavior denoting the unfolding of a complete long wave. The entire unfolding process, divided into two cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, is analyzed, and two very important threshold points are identified and discussed. The present theoretical analysis suggests that the technoeconomic system is not a purely chaotic process, but exhibits a limit-cycle behavior, whose basic mechanism is the periodical deployment and filling of information in a ``leeway'' field of active information. The pace of the process, and hence the duration of the long wave, is determined by two biological control parameters, one cognitive, driving the rate of exchanging and processing information at the microlevel, and the other generational, constraining the rate of transfer of knowledge (information integrated into a context) between successive generations at the macrolevel. Moreover, it is speculated that social systems mimic living systems as efficient negentropic machines, and making use of Prigogine's entropy balance equation for open systems, it is suggested that its cyclical behavior is probably the best way to follow nature's efficiency strategy. %Z Good discussion of the theory behind dynamic of long-cycle development with a special focus on informational aspects.

@article{DevezasCorredine:2002, abstract = {In this paper, a cybernetic framework is proposed that may help in understanding the specifics of the timely unfolding of recurrent social phenomena, as well as provide a basis for their application as useful forecasting tools for futures studies. The long-wave behavior in technoeconomic development was chosen to apply this theoretical framework. The time evolution of a technoeconomic system is described discretely as a logistically growing number of ``interactors'' adopting an emerging set of basic social and technological innovations. By using the logistic function as the probabilistic distribution of individuals exchanging and processing information in a finite niche of available information, it is possible to demonstrate that the rate of information entropy change exhibits a ``wavy'' aspect evidenced by a four-phased behavior denoting the unfolding of a complete long wave. The entire unfolding process, divided into two cycles, an innovation cycle and a consolidation cycle, is analyzed, and two very important threshold points are identified and discussed. The present theoretical analysis suggests that the technoeconomic system is not a purely chaotic process, but exhibits a limit-cycle behavior, whose basic mechanism is the periodical deployment and filling of information in a ``leeway'' field of active information. The pace of the process, and hence the duration of the long wave, is determined by two biological control parameters, one cognitive, driving the rate of exchanging and processing information at the microlevel, and the other generational, constraining the rate of transfer of knowledge (information integrated into a context) between successive generations at the macrolevel. Moreover, it is speculated that social systems mimic living systems as efficient negentropic machines, and making use of Prigogine's entropy balance equation for open systems, it is suggested that its cyclical behavior is probably the best way to follow nature's efficiency strategy.}, added-at = {2010-03-02T17:25:53.000+0100}, annote = {Good discussion of the theory behind dynamic of long-cycle development with a special focus on informational aspects.}, author = {Devezas, Tessaleno C. and Corredine, James T.}, bdsk-file-1 = {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}, bdsk-url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00155-X}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2af80a386c1b46c32b41677dffe510c95/jrennstich}, date-modified = {2010-02-28 21:03:31 -0500}, interhash = {2df31d340f0b5aecbf9223747112a547}, intrahash = {af80a386c1b46c32b41677dffe510c95}, journal = {Technological Forecasting \& Social Change}, keywords = {change complexity development impact technology theory world-system}, month = May, number = 4, pages = {317--357}, rating = {5}, timestamp = {2010-03-07T08:45:55.000+0100}, title = {The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems: An Informational Interpretation}, volume = 69, year = 2002 }