An examination of potential seasonal predictability in recent reanalyses
Atmos. Sci. Lett., 15 (4):
266--274 (Oct 1, 2014)DOI: 10.1002/asl2.498
Abstract
This study examined potential seasonal predictability of precipitation and 2-m temperature in the recent global reanalyses from 1979 to 2012. The reanalyses being investigated are R1, R2, ERA-40, JRA25, ERA-I, MERRA, CFSR and 20CR. When compared against Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation, ERA-I and CFSR provide the best estimates of potential predictability, MERRA, R1 and R2 overestimate predictability and ERA-40 and JRA25 are unrealistic in the tropics. Predictability estimates of 2-m temperature from 20CR, JRA25, R1, MERRA, CFSR and R2 exhibit better agreement with the reanalysis ensemble mean than ERA-40 and ERA-I, which identify less predictability.