%0 Journal Article %1 Morse2011Forecast %A Morse, Andrew P. %A Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. %A Hoshen, Moshe B. %A Hagedorn, Renate %A Palmer, Tim N. %D 2011 %J Tellus A %K skill seasonal disease health %R 10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668 %T A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model %U http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668 %X We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER–MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4–6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.

@article{Morse2011Forecast, abstract = {We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER–MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4–6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Morse, Andrew P. and Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J. and Hoshen, Moshe B. and Hagedorn, Renate and Palmer, Tim N.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2d115f86bca8b5b069354f51410cdbc41/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {14223294}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668}, comment = {(private-note)Uses DEMETER}, day = 30, doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668}, interhash = {ac9d6d6e2a5bbd1959760efb662550a0}, intrahash = {d115f86bca8b5b069354f51410cdbc41}, issn = {1600-0870}, journal = {Tellus A}, keywords = {skill seasonal disease health}, month = dec, posted-at = {2016-12-07 15:43:42}, priority = {2}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:36:38.000+0200}, title = {A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668}, year = 2011 }