%0 Journal Article %1 Shier2006 %A Shier, David %A Tilson, J. Lee %D 2006 %J Med Health Care Philos %K Asphyxia Neonatorum; Biomedical Research; Birth Injuries; Cerebral Palsy; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Models, Statistical %N 2 %P 243--247 %R 10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2 %T The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature. %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2 %V 9 %X Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.

@article{Shier2006, abstract = {Celebrated for disproving the traditional view that lack of oxygen at birth (perinatal asphyxia) contributes significantly to cerebral palsy, a 1986 New England Journal of Medicine article by Karin Nelson and Jonas Ellenberg engineered a new consensus in the medical community: that lack of oxygen at birth rarely causes cerebral palsy. We demonstrate that the article's central argument relies on straightforwardly fallacious statistical reasoning, and we discuss significant implications--e.g. how carefully fetuses are monitored during labor and delivery, expert testimony in malpractice cases, and public policy decisions.}, added-at = {2014-07-19T21:21:21.000+0200}, author = {Shier, David and Tilson, J. Lee}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2e8527a1b3377aef7e02e48c331ca2786/ar0berts}, doi = {10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2}, groups = {public}, interhash = {9fc6dc286e5b409b71275fef0ca5c73f}, intrahash = {e8527a1b3377aef7e02e48c331ca2786}, journal = {Med Health Care Philos}, keywords = {Asphyxia Neonatorum; Biomedical Research; Birth Injuries; Cerebral Palsy; Humans; Infant, Newborn; Models, Statistical}, number = 2, pages = {243--247}, pmid = {16850203}, timestamp = {2014-07-19T21:21:21.000+0200}, title = {The Temporal Stage fallacy: A novel statistical fallacy in the medical literature.}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11019-005-3349-2}, username = {ar0berts}, volume = 9, year = 2006 }