%0 Journal Article %1 Dunstone2018Skilful %A Dunstone, Nick %A Smith, Doug %A Scaife, Adam %A Hermanson, Leon %A Fereday, David %A O'Reilly, Chris %A Stirling, Alison %A Eade, Rosie %A Gordon, Margaret %A MacLachlan, Craig %A Woollings, Tim %A Sheen, Katy %A Belcher, Stephen %D 2018 %J Geophysical Research Letters %K skill colleagues decadal seasonal precip %R 10.1002/2017gl076337 %T Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076337 %X Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show skilful predictions are possible (r\~0.5, p<0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g. wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g. dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapour into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general – although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses) very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skilful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.

@article{Dunstone2018Skilful, abstract = {Year-to-year variability in Northern European summer rainfall has profound societal and economic impacts; however current seasonal forecast systems show no significant forecast skill. Here we show skilful predictions are possible (r\~{}0.5, p<0.001) using the latest high-resolution Met Office near-term prediction system over 1960-2017. The model predictions capture both low-frequency changes (e.g. wet summers 2007-2012) and some of the large individual events (e.g. dry summer 1976). Skill is linked to predictable North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability changing the supply of water vapour into Northern Europe and so modulating convective rainfall. However, dynamical circulation variability is not well predicted in general – although some interannual skill is found. Due to the weak amplitude of the forced model signal (likely caused by missing or weak model responses) very large ensembles (>80 members) are required for skilful predictions. This work is promising for the development of European summer rainfall climate services.}, added-at = {2018-06-18T21:23:34.000+0200}, author = {Dunstone, Nick and Smith, Doug and Scaife, Adam and Hermanson, Leon and Fereday, David and O'Reilly, Chris and Stirling, Alison and Eade, Rosie and Gordon, Margaret and MacLachlan, Craig and Woollings, Tim and Sheen, Katy and Belcher, Stephen}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/21f41d677a291d66f8904398db4c7ca98/pbett}, citeulike-article-id = {14542169}, citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076337}, day = 02, doi = {10.1002/2017gl076337}, interhash = {479b152201cc562d0095dadd511f3fb5}, intrahash = {1f41d677a291d66f8904398db4c7ca98}, issn = {00948276}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, keywords = {skill colleagues decadal seasonal precip}, month = feb, posted-at = {2018-02-28 12:02:08}, priority = {2}, timestamp = {2018-06-22T18:39:21.000+0200}, title = {Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall}, url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076337}, year = 2018 }