%0 Journal Article %1 dougherty_hypothesis_2003 %A Dougherty, M. R. P. %A Hunter, J. E. %D 2003 %J Acta Psychol. %K alternativegeneration supporttheory,short-term-memory;alternative-outcomes;likelihood;task;plausibility;availability;model probabilityjudgment frequencyjudgment workingmemory hypothesisgeneration %N 3 %P 263--282 %T Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual differences in working memory capacity %U ://000184105100002 %V 113 %X This research examined the role of working memory (WM) in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Second, the number of alternatives retrieved was positively correlated with a measure of WM-capacity (the operation-span task). Third, participants' probability judgments were subadditive (summing to well over 100\%). Fourth, the degree to which participants' judgments were subadditive was affected by the number and strength of the alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Fifth, the degree to which participants were subadditive was negatively correlated with WM-capacity. The results suggest that individual differences in WM-capacity are fundamental to hypothesis generation and probability judgment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

@article{dougherty_hypothesis_2003, abstract = {This research examined the role of working memory {(WM)} in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Second, the number of alternatives retrieved was positively correlated with a measure of {WM-capacity} (the operation-span task). Third, participants' probability judgments were subadditive (summing to well over 100\%). Fourth, the degree to which participants' judgments were subadditive was affected by the number and strength of the alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Fifth, the degree to which participants were subadditive was negatively correlated with {WM-capacity.} The results suggest that individual differences in {WM-capacity} are fundamental to hypothesis generation and probability judgment. {(C)} 2003 Elsevier Science {B.V.} All rights reserved.}, added-at = {2009-06-04T20:43:01.000+0200}, author = {Dougherty, M. R. P. and Hunter, J. E.}, biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/289d4863f5d53535b01662f78feb9f3d7/quesada}, description = {Jul}, interhash = {89c71006e4b752e846e2eca5c24bcebf}, intrahash = {89d4863f5d53535b01662f78feb9f3d7}, journal = {Acta Psychol.}, keywords = {alternativegeneration supporttheory,short-term-memory;alternative-outcomes;likelihood;task;plausibility;availability;model probabilityjudgment frequencyjudgment workingmemory hypothesisgeneration}, number = 3, pages = {263--282}, timestamp = {2009-06-04T20:43:01.000+0200}, title = {Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual differences in working memory capacity}, url = {://000184105100002}, volume = 113, year = 2003 }