Abstract
Determining whether Earth-like planets are common or rare looms as a
touchstone in the question of life in the universe. We searched for Earth-size
planets that cross in front of their host stars by examining the brightness
measurements of 42,000 stars from National Aeronautics and Space
Administration's Kepler mission. We found 603 planets, including 10 that are
Earth size (1-2 Earth-radii) and receive comparable levels of stellar energy to
that of Earth (within a factor of four). We account for Kepler's imperfect
detectability of such planets by injecting synthetic planet-caused dimmings
into the Kepler brightness measurements and recording the fraction detected. We
find that $11\pm4%$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet receiving
between one and four times the stellar intensity as Earth. We also find that
the occurrence of Earth-size planets is constant with increasing orbital period
(P), within equal intervals of logP up to $\sim200$ d. Extrapolating, one finds
$5.7^+1.7_-2.2%$ of Sun-like stars harbor an Earth-size planet with orbital
periods of 200-400 d.
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