Abstract
Transitions emerge over time as fundamental change of large-scale
socio-technical systems such as energy infrastructures that are the
backbone of society. To date, however, the body-of-knowledge on energy
infrastructure transitions is largely descriptive. Transition management,
however, does have a prescriptive character - not only can we understand
transitions, we can also shape them. This implies technical system
design is augmented with policy, regulation, R&D strategies: some
coherent all-inclusive set of transition instruments or transition
assemblage. We conjecture a transition management strategy may equate
to collaborative design of such a transition assemblage. Using foundations
of complex systems theory, agent-based modeling, engineering and
policy design scenario analysis, design of experiments and statistical
data analysis, a modeling framework has been developed that enables
ex-ante assessment of alternative transition assemblage design-alternatives.
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