Inproceedings,

Agent-Based Modeling of Energy Infrastructure Transitions

, and .
NGI'08: Proc. NGInfra-IEEE Int'l Scientific Conf.: Building Networks for a Brighter Future, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, IEEE Press, (2008)

Abstract

Transitions emerge over time as fundamental change of large-scale socio-technical systems such as energy infrastructures that are the backbone of society. To date, however, the body-of-knowledge on energy infrastructure transitions is largely descriptive. Transition management, however, does have a prescriptive character - not only can we understand transitions, we can also shape them. This implies technical system design is augmented with policy, regulation, R&D strategies: some coherent all-inclusive set of transition instruments or transition assemblage. We conjecture a transition management strategy may equate to collaborative design of such a transition assemblage. Using foundations of complex systems theory, agent-based modeling, engineering and policy design scenario analysis, design of experiments and statistical data analysis, a modeling framework has been developed that enables ex-ante assessment of alternative transition assemblage design-alternatives.

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