Abstract
Reconstructing past population size from present day genetic data is a major
goal of population genetics. Recent empirical studies infer population size
history using coalescent-based models applied to a small number of individuals.
While it is known that the allelic spectrum is not sufficient to infer the
population size history, the distribution of coalescence times is. Here we
provide tight bounds on the amount of information needed to recover the
population size history at a certain level of accuracy assuming data given
either by exact coalescence times, or given blocks of non-recombinant DNA
sequences whose loci have approximately equal times to coalescence.
Importantly, we prove lower bounds showing that it is impossible to accurately
deduce population histories given limited data.
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