Zusammenfassung
In this article, an approach for probabilistic trajectory
forecasting of vulnerable road users (VRUs) is presented,
taking into consideration past movements and the surrounding
environment. Past movements are represented by 3D poses
reflecting the posture and movements of individual body parts.
The surrounding environment is modeled in the form of semantic
maps showing, e.g., the course of streets, sidewalks, and
the occurrence of obstacles. Forecasts are generated in grids
discretizing the space and in the form of arbitrary discrete
probability distributions. The distributions are evaluated for their
reliability, sharpness, and positional accuracy. We compare our
method with two approaches providing forecasts in the form
of continuous probability distributions, and we discuss their
respective advantages and disadvantages. We thereby investigate
the impact of poses and semantic maps. Using a technique we
refer to as spatial label smoothing, our approach is able to achieve
reliable forecasts. Overall, the 3D poses have a positive impact on
the forecasts. The semantic maps facilitate the adaptation of the
probability distributions to the individual situation and prevent
forecasts of trajectories leading through obstacles. Our method
is evaluated on a dataset recorded in inner-city traffic using a
research vehicle. The dataset has been made publicly available.
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