Zusammenfassung
The success of “infinite-inventory” retailers such as Amazon.
com and Netflix has been ascribed to a “long tail” phenomenon.
To wit, while the majority of their inventory is not
in high demand, in aggregate these “worst sellers,” unavailable
at limited-inventory competitors, generate a significant
fraction of total revenue. The long tail phenomenon, however,
is in principle consistent with two fundamentally different
theories. The first, and more popular hypothesis, is that
a majority of consumers consistently follow the crowds and
only a minority have any interest in niche content; the second
hypothesis is that everyone is a bit eccentric, consuming
both popular and specialty products. Based on examining
extensive data on user preferences for movies, music, Web
search, and Web browsing, we find overwhelming support
for the latter theory. However, the observed eccentricity is
much less than what is predicted by a fully random model
whereby every consumer makes his product choices independently
and proportional to product popularity; so consumers
do indeed exhibit at least some a priori propensity toward
either the popular or the exotic.
Our findings thus suggest an additional factor in the success
of infinite-inventory retailers, namely, that tail availability
may boost head sales by offering consumers the convenience
of “one-stop shopping” for both their mainstream
and niche interests. This hypothesis is further supported
by our theoretical analysis that presents a simple model in
which shared inventory stores, such as AmazonMarketplace,
gain a clear advantage by satisfying tail demand, helping
to explain the emergence and increasing popularity of such
retail arrangements. Hence, we believe that the return-oninvestment
(ROI) of niche products goes beyond direct revenue,
extending to second-order gains associated with increased
consumer satisfaction and repeat patronage. More
generally, our findings call into question the conventional
wisdom that specialty products only appeal to a minority of
consumers.
Links und Ressourcen
Tags
Community