We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.
%0 Journal Article
%1 Carreras2004Evidence
%A Carreras, B. A.
%A Newman, D. E.
%A Dobson, I.
%A Poole, A. B.
%D 2004
%I IEEE
%J Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, IEEE Transactions on
%K power\_grids, resilience, self\_organized\_criticality
%N 9
%P 1733--1740
%R 10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513
%T Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513
%V 51
%X We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.
@article{Carreras2004Evidence,
abstract = {{We analyze a 15-year time series of North American electric power transmission system blackouts for evidence of self-organized criticality (SOC). The probability distribution functions of various measures of blackout size have a power tail and rescaled range analysis of the time series shows moderate long-time correlations. Moreover, the same analysis applied to a time series from a sandpile model known to be self-organized critical gives results of the same form. Thus, the blackout data seem consistent with SOC. A qualitative explanation of the complex dynamics observed in electric power system blackouts is suggested.}},
added-at = {2019-06-10T14:53:09.000+0200},
author = {Carreras, B. A. and Newman, D. E. and Dobson, I. and Poole, A. B.},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/20a2f6369b5a7291a1da9eb30932ccc8b/nonancourt},
citeulike-article-id = {12073204},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513},
citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs\_all.jsp?arnumber=1333223},
doi = {10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513},
institution = {Oak Ridge Nat. Lab., TN, USA},
interhash = {e0f47da0ec3f25eb9ce0412f54ee9e56},
intrahash = {0a2f6369b5a7291a1da9eb30932ccc8b},
issn = {1549-8328},
journal = {Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers, IEEE Transactions on},
keywords = {power\_grids, resilience, self\_organized\_criticality},
number = 9,
pages = {1733--1740},
posted-at = {2013-02-25 11:46:36},
priority = {2},
publisher = {IEEE},
timestamp = {2019-06-10T14:53:09.000+0200},
title = {{Evidence for self-organized criticality in a time series of electric power system blackouts}},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tcsi.2004.834513},
volume = 51,
year = 2004
}