Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions.
%0 Journal Article
%1 koelle_epochal_2006
%A Koelle, Katia
%A Cobey, Sarah
%A Grenfell, Bryan
%A Pascual, Mercedes
%D 2006
%J Science
%K corepape
%P 1898-1903
%R 10.1126/science.1132745
%T Epochal Evolution Shapes the Phylodynamics of Interpandemic Influenza A (H3N2) in Humans
%U http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/314/5807/1898
%V 314
%X Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions.
@article{koelle_epochal_2006,
abstract = {Human influenza A (subtype H3N2) is characterized genetically by the limited standing diversity of its hemagglutinin and antigenically by clusters that emerge and replace each other within 2 to 8 years. By introducing an epidemiological model that allows for differences between the genetic and antigenic properties of the virus's hemagglutinin, we show that these patterns can arise from cluster-specific immunity alone. Central to the formulation is a genotype-to-phenotype mapping, based on neutral networks, with antigenic phenotypes, not genotypes, determining the degree of strain cross-immunity. The model parsimoniously explains well-known, as well as previously unremarked, features of interpandemic influenza dynamics and evolution. It captures the observed boom-and-bust pattern of viral evolution, with periods of antigenic stasis during which genetic diversity grows, and with episodic contraction of this diversity during cluster transitions. },
added-at = {2009-05-15T07:48:18.000+0200},
author = {Koelle, Katia and Cobey, Sarah and Grenfell, Bryan and Pascual, Mercedes},
biburl = {https://www.bibsonomy.org/bibtex/2f083540258bb84010e6990b6f4e3830c/ebo},
doi = {10.1126/science.1132745},
interhash = {c90bbbb8adc2848d9d8ae305a85c6957},
intrahash = {f083540258bb84010e6990b6f4e3830c},
journal = {Science},
journalkeywords = {BIO306,read,UBM\_report},
keywords = {corepape},
month = {#dec#},
pages = {1898-1903},
timestamp = {2009-05-15T07:48:18.000+0200},
title = {Epochal Evolution Shapes the Phylodynamics of Interpandemic Influenza A (H3N2) in Humans},
url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/314/5807/1898},
volume = 314,
year = 2006
}