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Living risk prediction algorithm (QCOVID) for risk of hospital admission and mortality from coronavirus 19 in adults: national derivation and validation cohort study, , , , , , , , , and 13 other author(s). BMJ, (2020)Policy: Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims, , and . Nature, 503 (7476): 335--337 (Nov 20, 2013)Risk and Uncertainty Communication. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, 4 (1): 31-60 (2017)Use of normal risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19. BMJ, (2020)Visualizing uncertainty about the future., , and . Science (New York, N.Y.), 333 (6048): 1393--1400 (Sep 9, 2011)WinBUGS \– A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility, , , and . Statistics and Computing, 10 (4): 325--337 (2000)Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit, , , and . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 64 (4): 583--639 (2002)Probabilistic networks and expert systems, , , and . Springer-Verlag, New York, (2007)Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion), , , and . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, (2002)Machine Learning, Neural and Statistical Classification, , and . Ellis Horwood, (1994)