The collapse of complex human societies remains poorly understood and
current theories fail to model important features of historical examples of collapse.
Relationships among resources, capital, waste, and production form the basis for an
ecological model of collapse in which production fails to meet maintenance
requirements for existing capital. Societies facing such crises after having depleted
essential resources risk catabolic collapse, a self-reinforcing cycle of contraction
converting most capital to waste. This model allows key features of historical
examples of collapse to be accounted for, and suggests parallels between successional
processes in nonhuman ecosystems and collapse phenomena in human societies.
For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology. The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions. We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change. Current environmental impact mitigation neglects over-consumption from affluent citizens as a primary driver. The authors highlight the role of bottom-up movements to overcome structural economic growth imperatives spurring consumption by changing structures and culture towards safe and just systems.
IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.